The Post-Osama Peace Dividend Potential

And that's Osama (as in bin-Laden), not Obama. Though both are key to this.

A perceptive analysis of what could - should? - be done in the wake the al-Qaeda leader's death comes from Chrystia Freeland of Reuters. His death last week brings to a close a decade-long, US-led international effort at stemming bin Laden's efforts to wage conflict with those who did not ascribe to his extremist view. And to those who feel otherwise, can you please just accept that he is dead. If the Taliban believes he's gone, there's no reason anyone else should.)

Read what Freeland wrote yesterday, as there is an economic aspect worth considering.

Al-Shabaab's intentions to expand their operations beyond Somalia

As I wrote in my last post, the Somali Islamist group al-Shabaab has now partnered with a smaller rebel group, the Ras Kamboni Brigade. Bill Roggio at Long War Journal has been following the situation in Somalia for some time and has posted the English-language text of the merger of the two groups that was announced last Friday via the internet. As the announcement states, the two groups are now to be known as "Al Shabaab Mujahideen Movement", with a focus on continuing, "[T]he fight against enemies of Allah and to seek the establishment of an Islamic government," presumably in Somalia.

Though the group's press release doesn't deal with Shabaab's intention to cement their allegiance to al-Qaeda, it does allude to a broader campaign. Near the end of statement, the two groups (Shabaab and Ras Kamboni) agreed, "To counter the international crusaders' war against Muslims and to combine the jihad of the Horn of Africa with the international jihad."

In case anyone's interested, this is a clear indication that a relatively small group of Somalis, aided by foreign assistance, mean to expand their until now localized campaign into something broader. And the implications of this for both the international community as well as the Somali people are serious. If Shabaab's fighters carry through with their threat, Somalia is no longer about about famine, lawlessness and piracy.

Al-Shabaab confirms alignment with al-Qaeda: The Implications

The BBC is reporting that the Somali insurgent group al-Shabaab has finally confirmed what many had long suspected, that is that the Islamist fighters are aligning their local efforts with al-Qaeda's broader campaign of "international jihad". As well, the report says that Shabaab has forged an alliance with the Ras Kamboni Brigade, another Islamist group based in the southernmost part of Somalia, close by the border with Kenya. The Kimboni Brigade had previously been allied with Shabaab's main rival, Hizbul Islam, so these mergers change things a bit in the Horn of Africa, and we should be concerned.

Why?

Well, first off, this observer believes there will be a decrease in traditional piracy based out of ports in the southern part of Somalia, that is from Mogadishu to the Kenyan border (the land controlled by the Islamists). This hasn't been the main staging area for most attacks of late, and if Shabaab and its allies are serious about their intents of imposing their views of Koranic law (and why should we doubt that?), then it follows they will curtail further operations against shipping for the time being, if only to do what they say they aspire to. That's good, right?

Not really. It also opens up the potential for further external funding from al-Qaeda sources. Instead of looking to ransoms from hijacked ships (a small amount to begin with), Shabaab could see funding for its operations come from a more stable source - al-Qaeda supporters around the world. As Iraq and Afghanistan continue to fall off the international community's radar, the need for Qaeda to continue their misguided campaign create some sort of trans-national, extremist caliphate may push them into a new theater of operations. A southern front, if you will, one that happens to be in a venue in which many supporters can be found in Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt and even Kenya. So there may be more money and supporters available to bolster Shabaab.

Secondly, this public call of intents may very well increase the possibility that foreign fighters will add to the numbers already believed to be in Somalia today. It is not inconceivable that someone in Pakistan's Northwest Province is not today telling impressionable young men that they should take the fight against the infidels to a new place. Glibly, it's like , "Go south, young man, to a place you can make a better impact." Watch as fighters leave the tumult of the Middle East and Central Asia for the easier pickings of jihad in East Africa.

Finally, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that if you put a bunch of avowed al-Qaeda fans close to one of the most important sea lanes for global commerce, something bad may happen. We know what al-Qaeda is capable of, on at least four continents. And the only place they have effected large-scale maritime operations to date has been in the seas off the Horn of Africa (viz USS Cole and MV Limburg). If pirates can attack a supertanker or cruise ship for money, why couldn't suicide bombers do the same, albeit with a different goal.

And what does all this have to with piracy? It's simple: The international community has been struggling badly for years to deal with maritime criminals attacking shipping opportunistically. Are we prepared for, say, three skiffs laden with explosives aiming for a box ship in the Gulf of Aden or a supertanker near the Seychelles, piloted by individuals with no intent on boarding and hijacking?

I don't think we are.

The inadequacies of dealing with "conventional" piracy are serious. The shipping community, the international naval community and the nations of the world are hiding themselves in the sand about this. I hate to be the pessimist here, and will offer up some ideas shortly, but I worry that something bad's about to happen.

Al-Qaeda in Somalia: Naming names

At a barely noticed conference earlier this month in Kampala, Uganda, the African Union's Special Representative for Somali - Wafula Wamunyinyi - is quoted as saying that the presence of al-Qaeda in that country is real, something about which the world, "[S]hould be put on notice."

He claims that individuals have been recruited to the Somali-based group al-Shabaab from nations such as the United States, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Uganda and the Sudan. These foreign fighters, according to Wafula, now number 1200, half of whom he claims are Kenyan.

In the SperoNews report, journalist Martyn Drakard details some of those involved in the command structure of the Somali Islamist group, based on information from the AU Special Representative:

"Wafula listed the foreigners holding important positions within Al Shabaab as Sheikh Mohamed Abu Faid, Saudi born, who is the financier and current 'manager' of the group. The head of security and training operations is Abu Musa Mombasa, who arrived recently from Pakistan to replace Saleh Ali Nabhan who was killed in US military operations. Abu Mansur Al-Amriki, an American, heads the finance and payroll department of the foreign fighters, while Mohamoud Mujajir, a Sudanese, is in charge of the recruitment of suicide bombers, he said. Also on the list is Ahmed Abdi Godanem an Al-Qaeda graduate from Afghanistan, and Abu Suleiman Al-Bandiri, a Somali of Yemeni descent."

There is no doubt that foreign fighters have been aiding al-Shabaab: A senior member of that organization admitted as much back in May, as AFP reported, though Sheikh Hussein Ali Fidow categorized those fighters differently: "Those who say our Muslim brothers are foreigners are wrong. They came to assist their brothers in Somalia."

Brethren of the coast, indeed. The American mentioned above - Abu Mansur Al-Amriki ("the American") - is reported to have been born Omar Hammami and raised as a Baptist in Daphne, Alabama (near Mobile), before taking up an extreme form of Islam and leaving the U.S. to, eventually, end up in Somalia. Saleh Ali Nabhan - the head of training new fighters - was killed in mid-September by US Special Forces (see my earlier post about this here).

The biggest problem in dealing with piracy in the seas off Somalia is addressing what's going on ashore, and identifying those who are aiding in the destabilization of the region is of paramount importance. None of the information here is classified or secret, but it is a telling sign that there is intense intelligence-gathering going on in the region. Knowing the names of these individuals is (if correct) a big part of the proverbial intel iceberg.

Attack against Somali insurgents was U.S. operation

In an update on yesterday's report about a raid carried out in southern Somalia, various sources such as the BBC and The Associated Press are saying that it was an American-led operation. According to unnamed government sources, the commando-style operation involved forces from the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command and was carried out in the region of the southern coastal village of Barawe on Monday. Helicopters arriving from a US Navy vessel stationed offshore strafed a vehicle and killed at least two people in it. Two other individuals in the car were captured by the attackers and flown away with the raiders when they departed back into the Indian Ocean. There are no reports of any injuries or deaths to the raiders.

According to the BBC report, the target of the raid was Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, a suspected senior al-Qaeda commander in East Africa. The Kenyan-born Islamist extremist is believed to have been involved in the 2002 attack on a resort hotel outside Mombasa that killed 15 people and an unsuccessful attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner that had just departed that coastal city's airport. He may also have been involved in the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) that resulted in over 250 deaths.

Nabhan was reported killed in Monday's incident.

Speaking to the BBC, Andre le Sage of the African Centre at the National Defense University in Washington called Nabhan an important figure in al-Qaeda's East African operations, one who may have liaised with senior commanders in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He most certainly was involved with the Somali group al-Shabaab, reportedly helping the group manage its training camps for foreign fighter. And while le Sage says that Nabhan's death will certainly have an impact on al-Qaeda's capabilities in the region, he adds that al-Shabaab itself may be somewhat less affected. Like pirate gangs, the Islamist group may be able to find any number of willing individuals to fill the gap created by Nabhan's demise.

In the wake of the attack, the BBC also reports that some Somalis are worried about the potential that such actions will push local people into supporting extremist groups like al-Shabaab. An anonymous al-Shabaab commander also told the BBC that they would retaliate against American interests, saying, "They will taste the bitterness of our response."

Monday's attack underscores the increasing concern among many nations that the continued growth of Islamic extremist groups within Somalia needs to be more effectively addressed. The endemic lawlessness in Somalia not only allows militia gangs and pirates to operate with near impunity, but also provides the perfect base from which terror cells can organize and train themselves. As the number of foreign fighters has increased in the area and al-Shabaab and its allies consolidate their control over the southern quarter of Somalia - including the fertile Shabelle region - the situation has become much more serious. It is no longer a case of extremists having a mere toehold in the Horn of Africa; they now control an area the size of Holland and Belgium put together.

Previous reports had Somali eyewitnesses describing the raiders as being French military forces. Whether or not French forces were involved in the operation alongside American troops is not known at this time, though both countries maintain elements in the region, both at sea and ashore (in Djibouti).

Photos of Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, including retouched versions, from the FBI's wanted list

Terrorist threat may be growing in Somalia

Various media outlets like MSNBC are carrying an AP report that has a number of informed sources saying there is evidence that Islamist militants are filtering into Somalia from the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan and elsewhere in southwest Asia. The head of Africa Command, U.S. general William "Kip" Ward, tells AP that, "There is a level of activity that is troubling, disturbing," adding that, "When you have these vast spaces that are just not governed it provides a haven for support activities, for training to occur."

The number of foreign fighters who may now be in East Africa is thought to total just two or three dozen, but their arrival could herald the start of a new facet in the global war on terror. The idea that Somalia could become the new Afghanistan in East Africa, so to speak, has been discussed for some time. However, as the BBC's Rob Watson wrote last May, there are a number of fundamental differences between the two countries, not the least of which is the opposition that many Somalis have to extremist Islamist groups like al-Shabaab, as well as to foreign fighters arriving there.

Nevertheless, al-Shabaab appears willing to work with outsiders, such as al-Qaeda, in order to further their efforts to gain political control over larger parts of Somalia. If the news that foreign fighters are already in the country are true, this certainly adds another layer of complexity to the threats that Somalia poses to us.

Terrorism and piracy in Somalia

The US Naval Institute blog has a piece from last week pondering the connections between pirates operating in the seas off Somalia and the potential that it is funding extremist groups, something I've talked about before here. The author, Galrahn, talks about recent comments attributed to an al-Qaeda supporter, Sa’id Ali Jabir Al Khathim Al Shihri (aka Abu Sufian al-Azdi), calling upon Somali 'jihadists' to attack foreigners - he calls them crusaders - in the seas off East Africa. (Shihri was incarcerated in Guantanamo for six years before being sent back to Saudi Arabia last year, only to reappear spouting these purported comments.)

Galrahn wonders if the rise in pirate incidents off Somalia last autumn could be tied to the efforts of Somali Islamists - namely al-Shabaab - to hook up with al-Qaeda, efforts which began at about the same time. It's an interesting perspective, though I would offer that most of the pirates who may allied with al-Shabaab operate in the southern part of the country, not within the Gulf of Aden (GoA) region. Most of the folks in Somaliland and Puntland, the two areas in the north that abut the GoA, appear to have little desire to see Islamist rule imposed along the lines of that al-Shabaab espouses. And the upsurge of pirate incidents that came in August and September may also be attributed to the end of the summer monsoon season, a period over the the summer months in which those seas become somewhat rough and see many pirates take a breather from attacking in their small craft.

EagleSpeak has commented a number of times about the influence of weather patterns in the seas of the Horn of Africa on pirate attacks in those waters. And it's certainly true that we see patterns where attacks go down when the weather turns rough. This is one reason we're seeing so much activity off Somalia right now, because the pirates are trying to 'harvest' as much as they can before the monsoon winds begins to blow in a couple of months.

Nevertheless, I still think that we need to be vigilant about the threat of piracy funding extremist groups. Somalia has the potential to become the Afghanistan of Africa, something that few desire to see occur.

Yemeni suicide bombers being trained in Somalia?

A couple of weeks ago, on March 15, four South Koreans were killed by a suicide bomber as the tourists were visiting the historic Yemeni town of Shibam, a UNESCO World Heritage site. Speaking to Reuters, an unnamed Yemeni security official claimed the bomber - Abdel Rahman Mehdi al-Aajbari - had been recently trained in Somalia to carry out the attack. The official said that Aajbari had left his home in western Yemen about two months ago.

Meanwhile, The Long War Journal's Jane Novak reports that al-Qaeda has claimed responsiblity for this suicide bombing. Her article, "Yemen's three terror fronts", also details a second, unsuccessful attack in the capital city of Sana'a, carried out three days after Aabjari's deadly bombing. In this incident, South Korean investigators and family of the deceased tourists were targeted as they drove in a convoy of cars by another suicide bomber. Novak writes that al-Qaeda's internet statement says these attacks are part of an effort to "expel the infidels from the Arabian Peninsula".

Are Somali pirates helping al-Qaeda?

This past week the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency appeared before the Senate Armed Forces committee to provide an assessment of threats facing the United States. Lieutenant General Michael Maples' testimony received notice as he discussed Iran's nuclear capabilities and the various other ongoing threats, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan. But within his statements was a small commentary on Somalia that has been overlooked by many, though it's ramifications are potentially far-reaching.

Lt. Gen. Maples touched upon the links between the Somali Islamist group al-Shabaab and the more well-known al-Qaeda, stating that, "Recent propaganda from both al-Qaeda and the Somalia-base terrorist group al-Shabaab highlighting their shared ideology suggests a formal merger announcement is forthcoming."

Such an alliance would allow al-Qaeda to gain a more concrete base of operations in East Africa, within the territory that al-Shabaab already controls in the southern part of Somalia. Given that al-Qaeda has already carried a number of succesful terror attacks in the region, including the bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam and the seaborne assaults on the USS Cole and the MT Limburg, the transnational security risks this poses are great.

And since al-Shabaab is believed to receive at least some of its funding from pirate gangs operating within its sphere of control, this increases the reasons we have to both stem the tide of piracy off Somalia and address the land-based security issues.

For anyone who still thinks that Somali pirates are just a rag-tag bunch of opportunists whose continued criminal actions do not pose any real threats to us, perhaps Lt. Gen. Maples' testimony will sway you. It is clear, to this observer, that the lawlessness in the seas off Somalia and the anarchy ashore have the potential to create as grave a risk to our national securities as Afghanistan and the Taliban did. That's why we need to forcefully address it.