Suicide bombings in Mogadishu were revenge for recent US raid: Al-Shabaab

The Somali insurgent group al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for a deadly attack in Mogadishu earlier today that killed at least nine people. Two cars painted to look like UN vehicles made it onto the base where peacekeeping troops from the African Union are quartered, near the airport. One car detonated near a fuel depot, the other nearby. Among those killed was the AU's deputy commander for the mission in Somalia, Major-General Juvenal Niyonguruza, four other officials and the attackers.

A spokesman for al-Shabaab told Reuters that the double suicide bombing was in retaliation for Monday's raid by U.S. special forces, in which suspected al-Qaeda leader Salah Ali Saleh Nabhan was killed. Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage is quoted as saying, "We have got our revenge for our brother Nabhan." He also said that his group believes the "infidel government" and AU peacekeepers are planning to attack al-Shabaab once Ramadan ends. "This is a message to them," said Rage.

The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM; website here) comprises some 5,000 troops, from Uganda and Burundi, as well support staff. Since being first deployed in February 2007, the force has seen 33 peacekeepers killed in Somalia, not counting today's fatalities. AMISOM is not involved with counter-piracy operations.

Penetrating the main military base of AMISOM within days of vowing revenge for the US-led raid reveals the organizational capabilities of al-Shabaab, as well as the weakness of the peacekeeping force. But it also reveals a degree of frustration that must be felt by the Somali Islamist group's leadership, since the suicide attack targeted fellow Africans, not the Americans they would have preferred to kill. One wonders if some members of the peacekeeping force are angry with both al-Shabaab and the U.S., and whether this week's incidents will cause other nations to avoid committing their troops to AMISOM or other operations.

On a related note, al-Shabaab also confirmed that they continue to hold a French security consultant who was seized in July (a fellow French captive kidnapped at the same time managed to escape late last month). The group announced a modest list of demands in return for which they would release the man: France must withdraw its security advisors from Somalia and cease supporting the "apostate government of Somalia" militarily or politically; the AU's troops are to be removed; mujahideen fighters being held in other countries are to be released; and French warships deployed in counter-piracy operations off Somalia are to pack up and go home.

Sarcasm aside, it is interesting that al-Shabaab put that last demand in their statement. With the new piracy season about to begin, it could be the group is worried that their pirate allies may not be able to operate as successfully as earlier this year, impacting the financial income that the Islamist group garners from piracy.

Attack against Somali insurgents was U.S. operation

In an update on yesterday's report about a raid carried out in southern Somalia, various sources such as the BBC and The Associated Press are saying that it was an American-led operation. According to unnamed government sources, the commando-style operation involved forces from the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command and was carried out in the region of the southern coastal village of Barawe on Monday. Helicopters arriving from a US Navy vessel stationed offshore strafed a vehicle and killed at least two people in it. Two other individuals in the car were captured by the attackers and flown away with the raiders when they departed back into the Indian Ocean. There are no reports of any injuries or deaths to the raiders.

According to the BBC report, the target of the raid was Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, a suspected senior al-Qaeda commander in East Africa. The Kenyan-born Islamist extremist is believed to have been involved in the 2002 attack on a resort hotel outside Mombasa that killed 15 people and an unsuccessful attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner that had just departed that coastal city's airport. He may also have been involved in the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) that resulted in over 250 deaths.

Nabhan was reported killed in Monday's incident.

Speaking to the BBC, Andre le Sage of the African Centre at the National Defense University in Washington called Nabhan an important figure in al-Qaeda's East African operations, one who may have liaised with senior commanders in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He most certainly was involved with the Somali group al-Shabaab, reportedly helping the group manage its training camps for foreign fighter. And while le Sage says that Nabhan's death will certainly have an impact on al-Qaeda's capabilities in the region, he adds that al-Shabaab itself may be somewhat less affected. Like pirate gangs, the Islamist group may be able to find any number of willing individuals to fill the gap created by Nabhan's demise.

In the wake of the attack, the BBC also reports that some Somalis are worried about the potential that such actions will push local people into supporting extremist groups like al-Shabaab. An anonymous al-Shabaab commander also told the BBC that they would retaliate against American interests, saying, "They will taste the bitterness of our response."

Monday's attack underscores the increasing concern among many nations that the continued growth of Islamic extremist groups within Somalia needs to be more effectively addressed. The endemic lawlessness in Somalia not only allows militia gangs and pirates to operate with near impunity, but also provides the perfect base from which terror cells can organize and train themselves. As the number of foreign fighters has increased in the area and al-Shabaab and its allies consolidate their control over the southern quarter of Somalia - including the fertile Shabelle region - the situation has become much more serious. It is no longer a case of extremists having a mere toehold in the Horn of Africa; they now control an area the size of Holland and Belgium put together.

Previous reports had Somali eyewitnesses describing the raiders as being French military forces. Whether or not French forces were involved in the operation alongside American troops is not known at this time, though both countries maintain elements in the region, both at sea and ashore (in Djibouti).

Photos of Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, including retouched versions, from the FBI's wanted list

Sign of pirate ransom demands going up?

MV Irene E.M. (photo: Roberto Smera/Associated Press)

After being held by Somali pirates for five months, reports say that a Greek-owned bulker and her crew of 21 Filipino mariners have finally been set free. The MV Irene E.M. was seized on April 13 while sailing through the Gulf of Aden and then held off the northeastern coast of Somalia as negotiations dragged on to release the vessel and her crew. The capture of the bulk carrier occurred just one day after the dramatic rescue of the Maersk Alabama's captain, Richard Phillips, by US Navy forces. Unfortunately for the Filipino crew of the Irene, no special forces teams were able to effect a rescue mission, so the mariners had to endure a lengthy period as prisoners in conditions that must have been abysmal. (Photo below was released by the pirates in mid-August and comes from the blog Unheard No More!, one of a number of sites that tried to keep the crew's plight in the public eye.)
According to Reuters, the Somali pirate gang that held the Irene netted a ransom of about $2 million, a sum that places this incident in the upper echelons of amounts paid to free a vessel and its crew. By comparison, the captors of the supertanker MT Sirius Star - freed last January after being held by pirates for two months - received a ransom of about $3 million. But the supertanker was a much more valuable target than the Irene in terms of the value of the vessel and its cargo of crude oil (the Sirius Star itself was worth about $150 million and the crude another $100 million).

News that the crew of the Irene is finally free is, of course, most welcome. Yet the hefty ransom that was reportedly paid to the pirates may be an ominous sign that future demands will be higher than previously seen. If a somewhat older bulker like the Irene can garner $2 million for criminal gangs, what of a newer vessel, a container ship or another tanker? Granted there's a bit of supply and demand going on here: Somali pirates have only been holding a handful of vessels these last few months, so they may have asked for more in this case because they had few other prospects (see the Reuters FactBox here for an update on vessels currently believed to be in pirate hands).

On the other hand, we could be seeing initial signals that inflation has seeped into the local pirate economies in the Horn of Africa. About five years ago, the MV Irene would likely have been freed for a far lower sum, perhaps $100-250,000; two years ago, maybe $500-750,000; last year, probably a million dollars, at best. Looking at this particular incident and others from earlier this year, it seems entirely conceivable that we'll see an incident in the near future - before Christmas - in which someone will end up paying $5 million to pirates in order to secure the release of a ship, and its hostages.

The only saving grace in all this is that every economic boom eventually undergoes a "correction", as so many people around the world have witnessed in the last year (September 15 marking the one year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers). At some point, the bubble must burst, and this is as true for Somali pirates as anyone else. One scenario could see so many vessels being held captive in the coming months that their overall bargaining value diminishes for the pirates, though there is a quantitative aspect, too: Even if you have to reduce your demands for a vessel similar to the Irene to just a million dollars, having a few more prizes under your control can still make the economic bottom line pretty profitable.

Still, for the short term things appear rosy for pirates and greed will drive them to resume their seagoing operations off the Horn of Africa and demand ever more exorbitant pay-offs. The worry here is that a shipowner will eventually refuse to accede to those demands and someone will get killed - most likely a seafarer. This in no way condones the paying of ransoms, but is merely a harsh assessment of what may come to pass as pirates resume their operations off East Africa.

Somali militants attacked by foreign troops

Early reports by outlets such as the BBC and New York Times say that a helicopter raid was carried out earlier today against possible members of the al-Shabaab Islamist group in southern Somalia. Witnesses say that two helicopters took part in the attack, which occurred about 250 kilometres south of Mogadishu in territory al-Shabaab largely controls. According to witnesses, the attackers wore uniforms with French insignia and arrived from the direction of a French naval vessel in the Indian Ocean. The raiders targeted a vehicle and killed at least two people, possibly including a senior militant leader. At this time, the French are denying their forces were involved in any actions in Somalia, though one French security adviser remains in the custody of insurgents after being captured in July (a fellow captive managed to recently escape).

As Somali pirates prepare to resume their attacks, so does the pressure to combat them

In a roundtable discussion with journalists and bloggers last Friday, the head of Combined Task Force 151 (CTF 151) and his chief of staff offered a few insights into some of the problems they're facing in dealing with piracy, as well how how they hope their naval forces can better the situation. US Navy Rear Admiral Scott Sanders and British Royal Navy Captain Keith Blount spoke from aboard the American guided missile cruiser USS Anzio, while on patrol off the Horn of Africa.

Overall, both officers were upbeat and positive about the problems facing the task force, and other naval elements as well. Admiral Sanders, who assumed command of CTF 151 in mid-August, took pains to point out the inter-operational capabilities that his task force has developed with other nations' naval and security forces and also with civilian organizations, especially within the shipping community. This has helped to reduce the ability of pirates to successfully hijack any vessels this year within the International Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC), a sea lane that runs along the southern coast of Oman and Yemen which is a major transit corridor to and from the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

The reduction of pirate incidents within the IRTC is partially the result of focusing major naval elements within this area, using convoys to move merchant traffic and increasing the level of communication between civilian and military nodes. But it must be said that the overall level of piracy off the Horn of Africa (HoA) has also diminished these last few months because of meteorological conditions. If you will, everyone's been taking a breather because the seas have been rough.

The problem for Adm. Sanders and many others is what will happen in the coming months, when the Somali pirates resume their operations. They are facing a well-developed enemy with years of experience in asymmetrical warfare, against whom we in the international community have been unable to effectively combat. Earlier this year we saw the largest international armada ever assembled since the Second World War patrolling the waters off the HoA, one that comprised dozens of nations intent on containing the plight of piracy. And it failed.

Okay, that may sound harsh in light of achievements like the safe movement of vessels through the IRTC, but the reality is that even with this large international naval presence in the region, pirate attacks in the first quarter of 2009 doubled from the year before.

So it leaves one to wonder how much pressure commanders like those involved in this roundtable are facing off the HoA. After all, your predecessors didn't do a particularly good job earlier this year. To make a crude analogy, the situation with Somali pirates today is kind of like Iraq a couple of years after the last invasion. There are no rule books or precedents that can really be applied - though some historical evidence is available. But dealing with Somali pirates is nothing like addressing Barbary pirates.

It should also be remembered that most people think there's an easy way to deal with the situation: Bring in more warships and show the pirates who's really boss. But this is only part of the solution and no real means to stem the attacks can ever come without a land-based effort to address the root causes that compel young men to attack merchant vessels. And the longer it takes to make some real progress combating piracy off East Africa, the quicker the general populace will grow bored off the issue.

If we continue to see container ships or oil tankers seized in the months ahead, there's a chance the average Westerner will throw up their proverbial hands and lose interest in something that affects all of us. Hopefully forces like CTF 151 can prevent this from happening. Otherwise, the gain that have been made in counter-piracy operations over the last half decade will be muted.

Public opinion is what drives political will, and stemming global piracy requires a lot of interest from people outside the security and transportation communities. So there's a lot of pressure on the military forces of many nations to produce some effective results in this undeclared war against pirates.

Getting ready for the fall piracy season

While I'm aware we have three more weeks before the autumnal equinox officially arrives, Labour Day is fast approaching and, with it, the virtual end of summer. It's been a strange summer in these parts (more rain than most would like), and relatively quiet on the seas. We did have the Arctic Sea incident to ponder - which is still playing out - and, of course, piracy off the Horn of Africa has been in a lull as a result of the summer monsoon winds. If experience is anything to go by, we can expect to see Somali pirate activity to resume in the coming weeks, once the winds die down. So there will be much to watch as the piracy season resumes in that region.

Meanwhile, I'm in the midst of taking some time off. Might even squeeze in a few days away from the office. But rest assured I maintain a high tech security system to safeguard my valuables here: ADT has nothing on this. Only my four-legged companion knows how to disable it - and you don't want to mess with him, either. Trust me.

Canadian researchers working to improve counter-piracy measures

Steven Chase of The Globe & Mail newspaper wrote an interesting piece about some work being done by Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) to help mariners detect potential threats in piracy-prone waters (his piece can be seen by clicking here). DRDC is the research branch of the Canadian Department of National Defence, and has been looking into means of identifying small craft such as the fibreglass and wood ones used by pirates in many parts of the world. Picking out these craft with conventional measures such as radar is difficult, as the boats have little profile that can be picked up by the equipment. And the ability to discern between actual threats - such as pirate skiffs - and innocent vessels like fishing boats, is exceedingly difficult.

DRDC hopes they can figure out how to do so, by enhancing the means of identifying potential threats through the wake signature given off by fast craft. Fishing boats move at a slow and steady pace; pirate skiffs do anything but.

As the autumn piracy season fast approaches, any additional abilities to detect attackers will be of great interest to those mariners who deal with the issue of piracy. Testing is currently underway by DRDC which, unfortunately, means any widespread practical applications of this technology is still a ways off.